FORECAST OBJECT REGISTRY / EN

Events are not merely
forecast.
They are remembered.

01 / OBJECT REGISTRY

From an open question
to a verified outcome.

3 objects · 3 domains · 1 shared standard

PoliticsUSAResolved · 5 Nov 2024

Political Forecast Object

13 Keys to the White House

Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?A historical structural model compared with community assessments, market expectations and the realised outcome.

MODELHarris

COMMUNITYKey by key

RESOLUTIONDonald Trump

ResolvedOpen object

RegulationEuropean UnionTracking · through 31 Dec 2027

Regulatory Forecast Object

EU Event Contract Framework

Will a dedicated European framework for Event Contracts emerge by the end of 2027?Regulatory positions, consultations and product classification documented as an evolving chain of regulatory events.

MODELOpen

COMMUNITY64% YES

RESOLUTIONNot resolved

Being trackedView object

EconomyEuro areaResearch setup

Monetary Forecast Object

ECB: next interest-rate decision

Will the ECB cut the deposit facility rate at its next monetary-policy meeting?Macroeconomic data, central-bank communication and market expectations are documented as separate signals.

MODELIn preparation

COMMUNITYOpen

RESOLUTIONNot resolved

In preparationView object

02 / FORECAST OBJECT STANDARD

A shared grammar
for different events.

Each Forecast Object follows a consistent structure. This makes it possible to compare the question, methodology, community signal, market data, evidence and realised outcome transparently across topics and time periods.

01Thesis & scopeUnambiguous question, time period, jurisdiction and resolution rule

02ModelExplicit methodology, version and signal

03CommunityNon-monetary, time-stamped assessments

04MarketSeparate market-based probability

05EvidencePrimary sources, confidence and disputed interpretations

06TimelineChronology of all relevant changes

07ResolutionRealised outcome and resolution source

08Post-Event ReviewDeviation, calibration and learning

EDITORIAL GOVERNANCE

Facts, assessments and open questions remain visibly separate.

SYSTEMATIC LINKING

Market objects are linked with sources, events, products and lines of development.

COMPLIANCE LANGUAGE