Governance-capable
Measure, territory, threshold, reference period and source can be specified ex ante. The outcome can be reproduced independently.
15 / 16Governance points + qualitative conditionsECGA / EVENT SPECIFICATION SERIES 01–03
Three events.
Three governance decisions.
These product sheets show how an event idea becomes an auditable specification—including the ability to admit a market, keep it open subject to conditions or reject it on stated grounds.
EVENT SPECIFICATION / YES
Will the annual HICP inflation rate for the euro area exceed 2.0% in December 2027?
Aggregates expectations about a central macroeconomic measure with high information value.
Event
Annual change in the HICP for the euro area as published by Eurostat, with December 2027 as the reference month.
YES
The first regularly published figure is strictly above 2.0%.
NO
The figure is 2.0% or below.
Cut-off
Eurostat’s first regular release for December 2027.
Primary source
Eurostat · HICP annual data / News Release.
Fallback
The official Eurostat database; if publication is technically delayed, determination waits for the release.
Revision
Subsequent revisions do not alter the determined outcome.
Settlement
After documented source verification; audit trail with timestamp and dataset version.
ASSESSMENT RATIONALERegulatory product classification remains separate from ECGA eligibility.
Measure, territory, threshold, reference period and source can be specified ex ante. The outcome can be reproduced independently.
Purpose2/2
Definition2/2
Source2/2
Reproducibility2/2
Distance2/2
Insider1/2
Public Interest2/2
Finality2/2
01 / COMPARATIVE DECISION RECORD
The score alone
does not decide.
Not eligible
Objective determinability does not cure an unacceptable event subject. The potential adverse incentive is a hard exclusion criterion.
7 / 16Hard gate overrides the aggregate scoreConditional
The information value and source base are strong, but the definition of a qualifying instrument requires a more precise hierarchy of norms.
13 / 16Governance points + qualitative conditionsNEXT LAYER