swarmalpha Classification

ECGA / EVENT CONTRACT GOVERNANCE ARCHETYPE

Not every event
deserves a market.

ECGA defines the conditions under which an event-based market object can responsibly exist—and, equally importantly, when it must not exist.

ADMISSION SIGNALUNDER REVIEW
0 / 8 criteria · 0 / 16 governance points
01 / 08INFORMATION VALUE

Does the event create a credible information benefit?

The question must make uncertainty about the economy, politics, technology or society measurable in a structured way.

HARD GATE 01No objectively determinable outcome – no market.
HARD GATE 02No independently reproducible determination – no market.

01 / CONTROL CHAIN

Governance does not end
with admission.

01
Candidate

Event idea and information purpose

02
Classification

Product and legal assessment

03
Risk Score

Event, insider and manipulation risk

04
Admission

Controls, limits and conditions

05
Monitoring

Trading, conduct and source record

06
Determination

Rules-based outcome determination

07
Settlement

Finality and documented settlement

08
Audit

Post-event review and calibration

02 / GOVERNANCE LAYERS

Four layers.
An auditable standard.

01

EVENT ELIGIBILITY

Should this event exist as a market object at all?

  • Information purpose
  • Unambiguous definition
  • Public-interest assessment
02

DETERMINATION

How is the outcome determined independently?

  • Source hierarchy
  • Fallback & Revision
  • Disputes and finality
03

MARKET INTEGRITY

How does the signal remain robust?

  • Surveillance
  • Position limits
  • Insider and conflict rules
04

PARTICIPANT CONTROLS

Who may participate, and under what conditions?

  • Eligibility & Access
  • AML/KYC where value is transferred
  • Exposure and stop rules

03 / EXCLUSION CAPABILITY

The ability to reject is
a quality criterion.

A standard is credible only if it excludes unsuitable events on stated grounds. Economic attractiveness, public attention or high expected activity are no substitute for governance capability.

TYPICALLY ASSESSABLE
  • Official economic indicators
  • Central-bank and regulatory decisions
  • Elections and referendums with official outcomes
  • Publicly documented corporate events
NOT VIABLE OR VIABLE ONLY WITH DIFFICULTY
  • Terrorism and the killing of identified persons
  • Escalation of war involving harmful incentives
  • Subjective or non-reproducible events
  • Micro-events easily influenced by participants

04 / CONTROLLED SANDBOX

Limit, monitor, stop.

01Limited event categories
02Defined participant group
03Position and loss limits
04Real-time surveillance
05Regular reporting
06Pause, cancellation and exit rights

A sandbox is no substitute for authorisation or legal assessment. It is a controlled architecture for testing mechanics, conduct, data quality and governance before any expansion.

05 / EVIDENCE & CONTEXT

Standard, law and analysis remain separate.

ESMA · 03.07.2026Event Contracts and existing product-intervention measuresEU · MARMarket integrity and the market-abuse frameworkUSA · COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVECFTC Contracts & Products—Event Contract context
View three complete ECGA Event Specifications